Analysis on the Operation of Cotton Market in October

In October 2016, the price of raw materials fluctuated greatly. The domestic yarn production and sales performance was better than that of gray cloth. The export pressure was still large, and the stock of yarn and cloth increased.

First, raw material procurement and inventory situation

September, the domestic cotton prices, mainly due to: September sporadic listing of new cotton, seed cotton purchase prices continued to rise, driving lint prices strong; Second, September 21, the Ministry of Transportation issued a new transport regulations, raw cotton transport costs, Affecting the cotton to the factory price. Cotton prices higher, non-textile enterprises to take advantage of the positive advantages of capital auction, took a lot of reserve cotton, compressed the purchase of cotton spinning enterprises, tracking data, raw cotton purchase volume and inventory fell 4.3% and 3.9%. Into October, the spot price of cotton continued to rise, as of 19, offer 15,450 yuan / ton, up 3.4 percent in October, inside and outside the cotton price per ton of 1630 yuan. The main reasons: First, the cold air during the National Day led to Xinjiang, picking cotton, delayed delivery, sporadic new cotton market prices firm; Second, the new flower is not a large-scale listing period, some cotton ginning plant appeared to grab cotton behavior, resulting in seed cotton prices Rose; third 2016 annual cotton quality is better than expected, have some support for cotton prices.

In September, PTA futures prices finished lower, 1.4D direct spinning polyester staple fiber prices fell by 1.4%; viscose staple fiber prices continued to rise in September rose 2.7%. Non-cotton fiber price volatility, cautious business to buy, tracking data show that non-cotton fiber procurement volume and the chain decreased by 3.0% and 6.0%. Into October, oil prices continued to soar, as of 19, quoted at 50.1 US dollars / barrel, up 4.2% in October. Polyester staple prices stabilized rebound, as of 19, polyester short offer 7095 yuan / ton, up 3.9% in October. Sticky short high-priced support weak, the price cut, as of 19, quoted at 16,600 yuan / ton, down 1.2 percent in October, the price of cotton per ton higher than about 1150 yuan. Non-cotton fiber price trend is difficult to judge, is expected to corporate non-cotton raw material inventories will remain low.

Second, the production situation

September cotton prices higher, a slight recovery in domestic orders. Tracking data show that yarn, cloth production increased by 1.3% and 0.13%, respectively. Into October, a slight increase in cotton yarn quotations, orders rose slightly; gray cloth prices affected by the impact of blocked raw cotton prices, rising fatigue, plus clothing, home textiles wait and see mood strong market, orders less.

According to customs data, in September 2016 China's textile and apparel exports about 22.764 billion US dollars, down 15.41%, the chain decreased 18.50%. Exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 7.72 billion US dollars, down 20.46%, a decrease of 24.66%; exports of clothing and clothing accessories 15,045,000,000 US dollars, down 12.56%, a decrease of 14.94%. Export pressure is still large.

Third, product sales

Cotton prices rose 1.1% in September due to higher cotton prices, while the price of cotton fabric CG C32 fell 0.3% due to slower price transmission. Yarn, cloth prices were mixed, the impact of different sales, tracking data, pure cotton yarn sales rose 3.3 percent, cotton cloth sales fell 2.5 percent. Into October, cotton prices fell after the strong, as of 19, cotton, gauze offer 22,965 yuan / ton and 5.67 yuan / m, up 4.8% and 1.5%. From the cotton quotation trend, a downward trend, affected by the October yarn, cloth take the goods still show pressure.

In September, with the price of chemical fiber staple fiber prices, chemical fiber yarn prices are changing, CY T32 fell 1.3%; CY R30 and CG R30 rose 1.6% and 0.4%. Tracking data show that chemical fiber yarn sales fell 0.3%, chemical fiber cloth sales rose 9.3%. Into October, the price of chemical fiber staple is still relatively large. As of 19, CY T32 offer 11,765 yuan / ton, up 4.1% in October; viscose prices vulnerable to fall, as of 19, CY R30, the price of crude oil prices rose, CGR30 prices were quoted 28,650 yuan / ton and 4.65 yuan / m, down 1.0% and 0.4%. From the raw material price trend, the recent, polyester short price continued strong, product shipments or will be faster, sticky short price weakness down, product sales or fatigue.

Fourth, product inventory

In September, due to the large fluctuations in raw material prices, yarn and cloth prices fluctuated, sales affected by certain impact, resulting in increased product inventories, tracking data, yarn, fabric inventory increased 1.0% qoq. Into October, sales "busy season is not busy," product inventory pressure or will continue to increase.


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